1
Heart attacks could nearly triple by 2050
Using Singapore’s national heart attack registry, researchers project that heart attacks will
rise by 194.4% between 2025 and 2050
— from 482 to 1,418 cases per 100,000 people, or close to three times as many.
That is a crude rate. The registry’s own
2021 report
shows that once Singapore’s ageing population is allowed for, the age-standardised rate did not rise
significantly between 2011 and 2021 (204.7 to 217.2 per 100,000). Much of the projected
rise is a population growing older, not each person’s risk tripling.
2
Weight is the fastest-rising risk factor
Among people who have a heart attack, the number who are overweight or obese is projected to
rise 880.0% between 2025 and 2050.
For comparison, over the same period: high blood pressure 248.7%,
type 2 diabetes 215.7%, high cholesterol 205.0% and
smoking 164.8%.
3
Deaths are falling for most risks — but not for weight
Heart attack deaths in people who are overweight or obese are projected to
rise 294.7% by 2050.
Over the same period, deaths linked to every other risk factor are expected to fall —
smoking by 49.6%, diabetes by 32.7%, high blood pressure by 29.9%
and high cholesterol by 11.7%. Better medicines for blood pressure, cholesterol and diabetes
— and fewer smokers — are the likely reasons. Weight is the one going the other way.
4
The burden is not shared evenly
The same registry analysis projects different rates by ethnic group. By 2050, overweight and obesity among
heart attack patients is expected to reach
10,372 per 100,000 in Malay and 4,261 per 100,000 in Indian residents,
against 2,887 per 100,000 in Chinese residents — roughly 3.6 times and
1.5 times the Chinese rate. Heart attack deaths are projected to rise most in Malay
(419.3%) and Indian (253.5%) patients, and least in Chinese
(211.5%). These are averages across large groups, and the risk factors behind them all
respond to treatment.
5
Roughly 1 in 3 deaths is heart disease or stroke
Cardiovascular disease caused
30.5% of all deaths in Singapore in 2024
— about 22 people every day. That share has held near 30% for a decade: in 2017 it was
6,292 deaths, or 30.1%.
Listed separately,
ischaemic heart disease was the third leading cause of death in 2024 (19.6%) and cerebrovascular disease, including stroke, the fourth (5.6%).
The national registries recorded 364 heart attacks and 284 strokes per 100,000
residents in 2021, up from 254 and 195 in 2011
(heart attack
and stroke registries).
6
More than 1 in 4 with high blood pressure don’t know it
In the National Health Survey 2010,
26.3% of people found to have high blood pressure had never been diagnosed
— more than one in four. It was highest among Malay residents (29.6%), then
Chinese (26.0%) and Indian (23.8%). High blood pressure usually causes no
symptoms, so feeling well does not mean yours is normal. A simple check is the only way to know.
7
Blood pressure is better controlled in some groups than others
In the same National Health Survey 2010, among people already known to have high blood pressure,
67.4% had it under control
— but that average hides a wide spread: 70% of Chinese, 68.9% of Indian and
51.5% of Malay patients. How common it was also differed: 28% of Malay,
23.4% of Chinese and 19.3% of Indian residents aged 30 to 69. A later
national survey, in 2016–2017, put overall prevalence at just above 20%.
8
It is a regional problem, not just a Singaporean one
Across the ten ASEAN countries, 36.8 million people were living with cardiovascular disease in 2021
and 1.66 million died of it — making it
the region’s biggest cause of illness and death.
The most common form is ischaemic heart disease (narrowed heart arteries) at 2,070.6 cases per 100,000,
driven mainly by high blood pressure, diet, air pollution, LDL cholesterol and tobacco.
Medically Reviewed By: 
